The trial data, in plain English
SURMOUNT-5(2024, published in New England Journal of Medicine 2025) is the only published head-to-head trial of tirzepatide vs semaglutide for weight loss. 751 adults with obesity and no T2D were randomized to tirzepatide (max 15mg) or semaglutide (max 2.4mg) for 72 weeks. Mean weight loss: 20.2% with tirzepatide, 13.7% with semaglutide. The tirzepatide arm had roughly 6.5 percentage points more weight loss — for a 220-lb patient, that’s about 14 lbs difference.
SURPASS-2(2021) compared tirzepatide (5, 10, 15mg) to semaglutide 1mg in T2D patients. At 40 weeks, A1C reductions were 2.0%–2.3% for tirzepatide vs 1.9% for semaglutide 1mg. Weight loss: 7.6–11.2 kg for tirzepatide, 5.7 kg for semaglutide. Note: the semaglutide arm used 1mg (standard T2D dose), not 2.4mg (weight-loss maximum), so this trial underestimates semaglutide’s max-dose weight effect.
SELECT (2023, Wegovy) demonstrated a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in adults with established CVD + overweight/obesity — a unique benefit semaglutide has that tirzepatide has not yet demonstrated in a completed outcomes trial.
Cost per pound lost — the number that actually matters
For most patients paying cash or with partial coverage, cost per pound lost is the honest metric. Based on typical 2026 pricing and SURMOUNT-5 efficacy:
- LillyDirect Zepbound ($499/mo × 18 months) with ~44 lbs loss = $204/lb.
- NovoCare Wegovy ($499/mo × 18 months) with ~30 lbs loss = $299/lb.
- Commercial covered + savings card (either drug, ~$25/mo average including card exhaustion): $10–$15/lb.
Run the calculator above with your actual starting weight and access-path pricing. The cost-per-pound gap between tirzepatide and semaglutide is the biggest driver of rational drug choice for cash-pay patients.
Decision framework
- Do you have T2D?If yes, explore Mounjaro (tirzepatide) or Ozempic (semaglutide) based on what your plan covers. If your A1C is substantially above goal, tirzepatide’s edge in A1C reduction may matter.
- Do you have commercial insurance with AOM coverage?If yes, both Wegovy and Zepbound work. Run the savings-card math for your specific plan — Wegovy’s $0 floor sometimes wins year-one; Zepbound’s higher efficacy may win over 2+ years.
- Uninsured or no AOM coverage? Almost always tirzepatide via LillyDirect — both cheaper and more effective than alternatives.
- Medicare + established CVD? Wegovy via the SELECT indication is the rare covered path.
- Medicare + OSA? Zepbound for OSA is covered. Tirzepatide wins here too.